In the news this week: December 7th

In the news this week: a new Ebola virus has hit western Uganda; Kony has been given one month to leave the DRC; The falling U.S. dollar may harm Uganda's economy; Rising food prices have implications for the government's industrialization policies; and World Cup qualifiers.

Ebola returns

A previously unknown strain of the Ebola virus, a highly lethal form of hemorrhagic fever has hit Bundibugyo and Kasese districts. So far, 101 cases have been reported and 338 people are being closely monitored; 22 have died, including four Ugandan medical professionals. The Uganda Medical Workers Union has advised its members to leave Western Bundibugyo. In 2000, the virus was reported in Gulu where 425 people were infected, and over half of them died. Neighbouring states Rwanda, Kenya and the DRC are screening travellers from Uganda.

Up until this week, the country had no means of testing for the virus; samples were being sent to South Africa and the U.S. Poor infrastructure will inhibit any plans to contain the disease. Now would be a good time to find out whether that wireless healthcare network made any difference.

Adding his two cents, Museveni has recommended that all Ugandans stop shaking hands. The advice will no doubt trigger a resurgence of the fisted-knock handshake greeting, oku bonga.

Kony to leave DRC

LRA rebel chief Joseph Kony has been given one month to vacate Garamba national park in north eastern DRC. The ultimatum follows a meeting between Congolese and Ugandan officials with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Ethiopia, and comes at a time when Kony's role in the mysterious disappearance of his deputy Vincent Otti has damaged the credibility of the LRA. Museveni's government hopes that the ultimatum, coupled with the embarrassment of recent defections by LRA fighters will put pressure on Kony but while their strategy may succeed, the results may not be in their favour. The LRA has a history of reacting violently when in a tight corner.

Falling dollar

Between the concerns over the health of the global credit markets and rising oil prices, investors in all sectors have had a lot to think about lately. But it is the weak U.S. dollar that has been making headlines of late. Already, property investors in Kenya are beginning to feel the pinch, and expectations are high that Ugandan investors will fare much worse:

Leaving the tricky bits to the Economist, the dollar's role as a stabilizing currency in the Ugandan economy comes into focus. For much of the 80s and 90s, it was used by local entrepreneurs to protect their profits from the fluctuating shilling. If the dollar continues to fall this practice will most certainly be abandoned. That said, it is the dollar's impact on export earnings that could really hurt the agricultural sector. Agricultural exports supply nearly all of Uganda's foreign exchange earnings.

Rising food prices

The Economist reports rising cereal prices in spite of a bumper cereal crop harvest. The magazine reasons that this is because (a) the rising middle classes in China and India want more meat, which in turn means more grain is needed to feed the cattle, and (b) the rising price of ethanol. Despite its status as an agricultural country, higher cereal prices will not be a boon to Uganda's economy. The best place for large scale cereal production in the country is in the north. This region has suffered from a 20 year war between the government and the LRA, and the northeast is recovering from major floods earlier this year.

The government has been aggressively pursuing industrialization policies with major plans for oil production taking a fore. This strategy has merits but agriculture, done the right way, can still lift millions out of poverty:

This rise in world prices for cereals suggest that now is the right time for Uganda to expand its agricultural exports beyond the traditional cash crops: tea and coffee. And, ethanol made from sugar cane or maize could go a some way in relieving the economic pressures coming from rising oil prices.

World Cup qualifiers

Uganda will have a chance to move past the crushing disappointment of missing out on the 2008 African Cup of Nations in Ghana when the World Cup qualifying round starts up next May. The Cranes are in a group with Niger, Angola and Benin.

With its first two games at home, the Ugandan national team will have a chance to move ahead of group rival Angola. Cranes coach Laszlo Csaba has inspired some confidence with his tactics during the Nations cup qualifying campaign, but his failure to bring up young talent is being called to question in The Observer. The concerns might be legitimate, but with the CECAFA Championship Csaba cannot afford any distractions. Uganda plays Djibouti on December 9th in Dar-es-Salaam.

And there are expectations. The Cranes have lifted the tournament trophy a record nine times.